Hunter College Professor Predicts Democrats Will Control Congress After November Elections
Date: October 7, 2002
Contact: Marisa Osorio (marisa.osorio@hunter.cuny.edu)
Phone: (212) 650-3736
Democrats will regain control of the House of Representatives and expand their majority in the Senate following the November mid-term elections, according to forecast models compiled by Charles Tien, Hunter College political science professor and election forecaster.
Tien and his collaborator, Michael Lewis-Beck, a University of Iowa political scientist, predict the House will gain eight Democratic seats and the Senate will gain three Democratic seats. "These predicted seat losses are actually a smaller number than are traditionally lost by the party of the sitting president," Tien said.
The forecast models are based on data gathered on elections across the post-World War II period and take into account two important substantive factors: economic conditions and the popularity of the president. The first year the model was conducted it successfully predicted the exact vote percentage former President Bill Clinton received in 1996 and has been a part of national poll predictions for the past six years.
Tien and Lewis-Beck's predictions were based on summer estimates, which were somewhat favorable for the party in the White House. In June, President Bush's popularity in the Gallup poll equaled 70 percent, which is the second highest June midterm election rating since 1950. Also, disposable income growth during the first two quarters of 2002 was 2.21 percent, which is the largest midterm growth in disposable income since 1986.
"However these positive numbers will be overwhelmed by the historic pattern of mid-term loss for the president's party," Tien said. "The party controlling the White House has lost an average of 24 House seats and four Senate seats during midterm elections since 1950."
With respect to the Senate, these relatively positive popularity and economy numbers will help the Republicans, but not enough to overcome the losses they will sustain from having an unusually large number (20) of Republican seats being contested, Tien and Lewis-Beck said.
The political science professors caution that these election forecasts, like any others, are not expected to be exactly right. However, since they are based on historically accurate models, they provide an advanced look at a very probable outcome.
Hunter College, founded in 1870, has long enjoyed a national reputation for excellence in liberal arts and sciences and professional education. Hunter's main campus, located on 68th Street on Manhattan's Upper East Side, consists of the School of Arts and Sciences and School of Education. The college also includes a school of Social Work on East 79th Street as well as the Schools of the Health Professions (Nursing and Health Sciences) located at the Brookdale Health Science Center on East 25th Street; an MFA building and art gallery on the West Side; and the Hunter College Campus Schools serving gifted and talented students, preschool through grade 12.
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